Dinâmica da difusão de tecnologias da informação e comunicação nas economias desenvolvidas e em desenvolvimento

Abstract

The operation of technological progress requires understanding the dynamics of innovation diffusion. The diffusion consists in the propagation of an innovation. No there innovation diffusion, once they are imbricated concepts. Information and communication technologies (ICT) have revolutionized the business structures of firms and industries, and are fundamental to the diffusion of other innovations. Considering such a scenario, to better understand technological trajectories of the countries, reference to understand the dynamics of innovation diffusion. This research therefore aims to answer the following question: what is the dynamics of the diffusion process of internet technology and mobile telephony in developed countries and in developing countries? In order of understanding the dynamics that, empirical consumption data of these two technologies to the groups of the G7 countries and the BRICS were used respectively, in a temporal cut of 1990 to 2014. It was applied to the mathematical model of Bass (1969) generating consumption curve adjusted by the least squares method. The main results are: i) the dynamics of the diffusion of these two technologies confirms the behavior proposed by Rogers (1962), a curve in "S" shape over time representing adoptions by the population; ii) the model adjusted the diffusion curves of these technologies with low error rates, which over 25 years are between 0.2 and 5.1%; iii) developed countries tend to have the most innovative adopters in the population; iv) imitators adopters exert greater influence on the adoption of innovations; v) there is no direct relationship between the speed and the level of development of the economies studied; vi) the developed countries analyzed reached the tipping point in the diffusion process before developing economies; vii) some nations will reach just over half of its population with internet access. In developing economies, in addition to the late adoption, the process to capture new adopters per year is slow to the point that while the developed countries are already reaching saturation in most developing economies analyzed, these technologies also have the potential capacity for the diffusion. Finally, it is emphasized that if these two technologies tend to contribute to the diffusion of other innovations, it is assumed that the problem of retarded technological progress tends to aggravate for the developing economies.