Os efeitos do novo regionalismo sobre o comércio

Abstract

From 1990 there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements notified to the World Trade Organization. This study aims to identify whether this new regionalism led to the trade creation or trade diversion to their participants, as well as export diversion, using a gravity model based on panel data over the period from 1990 to 2009. In terms of methodology, it compares the most commonly used estimators of the gravity equation, OLS (pooled data), LSDV, HT, PMVP and Between. The LSDV estimator showed the best performance and this study found that the gravity model is extremely sensitive to the presence of outliers. The results suggest the existence of trade creation and export diversion due to the formation of Mercosur. With regards to NAFTA, besides being the only bloc that showed an anticipatory effect on their trade flows within the region, there are signs that the growth of trade occurred due to trade creation. Differently, the results for the Andean Community and the EFTA does not indicate that both expanded their levels of intra-bloc trade, taking into account the analysis of only a dummy for the entire period for each bloc. Nevertheless, there are indications that the Asean and PAFTA caused trade diversion, and also stands out the exporting nature of these blocs. The levels of intra-bloc trade of the European Union (EU) seem to have reached their limit, even after the adoption of the common currency. Similarly, this situation was observed in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Finally, the way trade flows evolved within each bloc (ex ante and ex post) was quite different, not only in terms of trade volume but also on how quickly they responded to their formation, with effect arising immediately in some cases and in others it took a few years.