Indicadores de competitividade do mercado de ensino superior para a avaliação da transferência interinstitucional discente: um estudo para os cursos de graduação em ciências contábeis

Abstract

In recent decades, the higher education market in Brazil has seen a strong expansion in the offer of courses. This evidence is mainly due to socioeconomic aspects, changes in legislation and government programs aimed at popularizing access to higher education. The economic sustainability of the institutions is in the midst of this market of concentration and competition. Competition happens to be in full evolution; and the economic sustainability, in part, involves the challenge of implementing the adoption of control. As well, management practices will minimize the effects between supply and demand for vacancies. Thus, creating an imbalance. In the context of managing indicators, monitoring the demand for vacancies in courses represents a key indicator in decision¬making by managers. Therefore, this research aimed to evaluate the relationship between demand for places (number of migrations) and competition between courses in terms of interinstitutional transfers. Competition between institutions was monitored both by students’ preference (probability of retention) and by the number of immigration routes | emigration between institutions (number of connections between institutions). For this purpose, longitudinal data from the INEP and IBGE databases from 2009 to 2017 were analyzed. The research population was represented by all HEIs in Brazil, and the sample consisted of Accounting students. The diagnostic analysis was based on the development of econometric models at student and course levels. For the students, a Logit model of Stacked Data was developed that deals with the relationship between the probability of retention and socioeconomic aspects. At the level of courses, a Random Effects Panel Data model was determined to explain migrations as a function of the number of connections between institutions. In terms of findings, at the level of the student’s decision, the probability of student retention in the course mainly depends, in order of greater probability, on economic, social and quality aspects of the course. With regard to competition between courses, it was found that the student migration flow responds to its centrality in inter¬institutional competition. In other words, there is a positive relationship between the student migration rate and the difference between the number/dispersion of the number of source and target institutions. Finally, a suggestion was presented to add a variable of average revenue per student to the models, given that it is not currently in the public domain.