Avaliações causais dos impactos da abertura multilateral sobre o comércio internacional

Abstract

The opening of international trade and the integration between countries has generated global economic impacts over the decades. This study intends to carry out causal evaluations of the multilateral openness through the WTO's performance, and if there were benefits for the countries when joining the agreement. The difference-in-differences method with multiple time periods is used, allowing for an annual evaluation of the treatment's impact. This approach aims to address a common limitation in the literature on trade agreements, which often examines long periods and, as a result, is more susceptible to variations in effects caused by other circumstances over time. The analysis also seeks to contribute beyond the total assessment of trade, disaggregating into sectors for better identification if some could perceive more benefits than others, separating into Plant and Animal Products, Agricultural Manufactures, Mineral Products, and Industrial Manufactures. In addition, the aggregate and sectoral impacts on the intensive and extensive margins are evaluated, which evaluate whether there were increases in the value and number of products sold, respectively. The results indicate that there were benefits to the participants for joining the WTO, when analyzed in aggregate by the extensive margin, and when broken down by sector, Agricultural Manufactures, Mineral Products and Industrial Manufactures benefited from the extensive and intensive margins.