Desintegração comercial: impactos econômicos do Brexit

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the economic effects of the commercial disintegration process resulting from Brexit on production, trade and welfare, especially for the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States of America, China , the Commonwealth of Nations, the countries of the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) and other countries in Latin America. The method used was the general equilibrium model computable from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database – version 10. Through a model based on constant returns, the non-tariff barriers between the United Kingdom were partially raised. and European Union, in the amount of 25% of the non-tariff barriers that monitor imports from the European Union from the United States of America, based on Berden et al. (2009). The results revealed that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom would generate a reduction in the level of well-being of the actors directly involved in Brexit, as also verified in the literature. The drop in welfare would be greater for the United Kingdom and most of the losses for both would result from the imposition of non-tariff barriers as a result of the loss of technical efficiency. On the other hand, the other regions would show gains in well-being, with emphasis on the United States of America and the Commonwealth of Nations. China, the Rest of Latin America and Brazil would also have welfare gains. The gains of all these regions would occur mainly due to the improvement in the terms of trade, to the detriment of the United Kingdom and the European Union.