A incerteza econômica e o capital de giro

Abstract

This paper aims to understand the relationship between working capital, the economic uncertainty and the financial constraint condition firm’s. Based on the literature review, it was possible to identify the theoretical assumptions on which the research was based. Two measures of working capital are used: one of that excludes cash and cash equivalents, as proposed by Bates, Kahle and Stulz (2009), and another that considers total current assets proposed by Fazzari and Peteersen (1993). The analysis is based on a sample with 773 companies, from 2000 to 2019. The results are determined through econometric procedures using the unbalanced panel data model with fixed effects. The findings indicate that, for the variable that disregards cash and cash equivalents, the conditions of uncertainty have a negative relationship with working capital, which is amplified on financial constraint companies. For the financial unconstrained companies, the economic uncertainty does not have a significant impact on working capital. For the dependent variable that considers total current assets, the results show that, both in the complete sample and in the sample of financially constraint companies, only a few uncertainty indicators have significant explanatory power. For the sample of financially unconstrained companies, the second model is similar to the first, since the uncertainty of the economy does not affect working capital. The difference between the results of the two variables can be explained by the fact that one considers availability, which constitutes reserves for unforeseen events, and the other does not. The working capital methodology that does not consider cash in its calculation was better adjusted to the model, confirming the expected results. It is worth asking how appropriate it is to add cash in the dimensioning of working capital, and to highlight the importance of incorporating protection instruments to the group of companies that suffer financial constraints, to enable the survival of their businesses.