Risco de crédito: uma exploração entre o índice de inadimplência do crédito nas instituições financeiras e algumas variáveis macroeconomicas

Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to analyze, in an exploratory, the relationship between the default rate of loans in the financial system and some macroeconomic variables, as well as effect the same variables concerning scope of credit in the national financial system. With monetary stabilization that Brazil has achieved from the Real Plan and economic changes, banks began to play strongl the market, mainly through credit concession, stimulating the adoption of evaluation systems and management of credit risk. All financing transactions and loans presuppose the existence of risk as the possibility of losses associated with non-payment by the credit borrower on the date agreed with the debtor, reduction of earnings or remuneration, the advantages granted in renegotiation and recovery costs. Analyzed the relationship of the credit volume with the growth rate of GNP, the unemployment rate and real interest rate in the economy, found a negative relationship and relevant in all three cases, considering that the expected relationship was this just for the two last variables. Already the index of general default in the financial system if was negatively related, with statistical relevance, with to level of unemployment and the growth rate of GNP, both expected results.