Tomada de decisão estratégica em contextos de incerteza: equilíbrio dinâmico entre as lógicas de causation e effectuation considerando os aspectos cognitivos e motivacionais

Abstract

The current organizational environment is characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). Within this context, entrepreneurship remains a key driver of innovation and value creation. However, in large organizations composed of multiple collaborators, entrepreneurial actions are carried out through intrapreneurship, where individuals operate using internal resources under limited autonomy, shared risks, and governance structures that directly influence decision-making. Investigating how intrapreneurs make decisions under uncertainty is essential to understanding the actual mechanisms of organizational innovation and to developing effective approaches for building corporate innovation capacity. This study investigated how these leaders manage to balance dynamically the two logics Causation and Effectuation in uncertain environments. A qualitative, exploratory, and descriptive approach was adopted, using in-depth semi-structured interviews and behavioural profile validation through the Enneagram with seven intrapreneurs from diverse business sectors. The findings reveal that the decision-making process unfolds in three main phases: (1) ideation/dissatisfaction, (2) analysis/search for security, and (3) execution/adaptation. The dynamic balance between logics occurs in an ambidextrous and situational manner and is influenced by individual characteristics such as cognitive style, perception of uncertainty, risk tolerance, and result orientation, as well as support networks and resource availability. The study also revealed that cognitive aspects are shaped by a rooted motivational base, formed by deep desires, fears, and beliefs, whose influence is moderated by each intrapreneur’s level of consciousness. A practical tool called the Strategic Intentionality Flow was developed, integrating cognitive (mental map), emotional (inner compass), and practical (journey into action) dimensions. Additionally, six practical decision-making guidelines were proposed to support strategic choices under uncertainty, providing a structured way to operationalize the dynamic balance between Causation and Effectuation logics in the intrapreneurial context.