Impactos da guerra comercial entre EUA e China nos países intensivos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the possible impacts caused on production, trade and well-being in the most R&D intensive countries, such as South Korea, Japan, Germany and France, as well as Brazil, from the trade war between the US and China. In this investigation, we used the general equilibrium model computable through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), in its version 10. It was found that a trade war between the US and China would cause a loss of well-being for both and gains for R&D intensive countries, in addition to Brazil. China's welfare loss would be greater, mainly due to the depreciation of the terms of trade. In terms of production, the US would migrate a portion of capital, land and labor from the medium-high-tech sector to the high-tech sector, while China would migrate from the high-tech sector to the primary goods production sector. Among the most R&D intensive economies, Japan would suffer the greatest negative impact on the trade balance, but in terms of welfare it would be the country most benefited by the war. For less R&D intensive countries, such as Brazil, the difficulty in guaranteeing intellectual property protection has mitigated private investments in R&D.