Identificação de insolvência a partir das informações contábeis: um estudo em micro e pequenas empresas

Abstract

In the national context, especially in the last few decades, small and medium-sized companies have taken on an important role in the Brazilian economy, both in terms of the share of GDP and in the generation of jobs and income, however, many of those com- panies cannot survive the first years of activities. In view of such situation, this study sought to find out which accounting information identifies insolvency situations in mi- cro and small companies. Therefore, from a descriptive research, using the Cox-Hazard Regression model, tests were carried out on small and medium-sized companies in the northern region of Tocantins, which have performed accounting records, in the period between 2014 and 2019. The tests analyzed companies’ performances and survivability over the period studied and estimated the main survival risks in general terms and in terms of sector of activities. In the research, the results were obtained from the identification and analysis of the variables that may indicate the insolvency of the compa- nies from the balance sheet and income statement. The results show that the ability of businesses to honor their commitments is essential for informing about the company’s future. The variables are related to the closing of the deals, pointed out in the general context of the companies were Current Assets and Supplier; in the context of Industry were Current Assets, Current Liabilities, Supplier, General Liquidity, Equity Share and Operating Margin on Sales; in trade, the variables Supplier and General Liquidity stood out. According to the test of probability of survival over time, the industry is more likely to manage to face economic issues and stay in business than the commerce, which from the third year onwards has a chance of going bankrupt.The variables found in the results are similar to the indicators pointed out in studies with large companies and the sur- vival period found in this research ratifies the results presented by studies carried out by SEBRAE. Among the contributions of this work to the accounting area, the application of the Cox-Hazard Regression model little used in Accounting Science stands out, by surveying related studies and similar research, for bringing essential information to sup- port decision making, that can help managers achieve greater efficiency in operational decisions.