Complexidade na escolha do curso de graduação e o uso de heurísticas e vieses como mecanismos de decisão

Abstract

The choice of a college major is one of the most important decisions made by individuals in their lives, given that it is usually related to their career or occupational choice as well. Therefore, this decision has potential impacts on many aspects of one’s future life, such as income, employability and happiness. It is, then, a complex choice, and so it is possible that individuals rely on mental shortcuts, or rules of thumb, that facilitate it. These rules of thumb, also called heuristics, are used by people to simplify and make their decision processes more intuitive, although with the potential consequences of resulting in biased or suboptimal choices. Considering this, the present research aimed to analyze whether heuristics and biases occurred during the decision-making process of higher education students for their college majors. Based on the existing literature, the effects here investigated were the sunk cost bias, present bias, framing effect, and the anchoring and representativeness heuristics. To identify whether these effects were a part of the students’ choice process, a survey instrument was designed. The application of the survey resulted in a sample of 470 students from the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre, distributed in six different majors. A Principal Components Analysis (PCA), in conjunction with additional statistical methods, was used to analyze the collected data, making it possible to reach the research goals. The principal components extracted by the PCA were interpreted and analyzed in relation to each one of the selected effects. The results of the research suggest that: a) the sunk cost bias affected students’ decision of remaining (i.e., not dropping out) of their majors throughout college; b) the students’ choices were anchored on social influences and on the salary they imagined that acquaintances, who graduated on the same major as theirs, receive monthly; c) the students used the representativeness heuristic, when relying on stereotypes, to assess their judgements. Meanwhile, evidence to support the occurrence of the present bias and the framing effect were not found in the students’ analytical process, which, in relation to these aspects, was consistent with more rational decision-making procedures. The research conclusions are that heuristics and biases were relevant elements which were present on the college major choice process – but they did not dominate it, operating, instead, in conjunction with more normative aspects of analysis and choice. Finally, suggestions of future research, which could help to expand these discoveries, are presented.