Impactos do BREXIT sobre os principais parceiros comerciais, com ênfase nos países emergentes

Abstract

O BREXIT is a process of economic (dis)integration started in 2016, in which voters voted to leave the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU), giving up the benefits that it previously had as a member of the bloc. The general objective of this study is to assess what would be the possible impacts of BREXIT on production, trade and welfare on the main emerging countries classified by trade flows with the EU, in addition to those directly involved. The computable general equilibrium model (Global Trade Analysis Project - GTAP) was used to estimate the effects of BREXIT from the soft scenarios, possible free trade agreement as practiced for Norway in the European Economic Area (EEA), and hard, a scenario in which no agreement was signed, framing the United Kingdom as a member of the WTO. The main results obtained show that both the bloc and the country would lose if there were greater disintegration, however for the emerging countries analyzed in the study, there would be gains in practically all sectors.