Efeito China: impacto da China sobre as exportações de países selecionados da América Latina

Abstract

China has established its leading role on the world economy, while Latin American countries do not seem to have strengthened their role as exporters of industrialized products. Chinese economic growth is a challenge for the Latin American countries, especially because of the importance of the exports of industrialized products. Therefore, the aim of this work is to determine the impact of China's performance in world trade on the exports of products with technological content from Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Argentina. For this purpose, two models are defined: competitiveness, to identify the implications of China's market share gains, and displacement, to analyze the impact of the increase in Chinese exports. We applied the econometric exercise of panel data, considering the exports of technological content of the above-mentioned countries, according to the taxonomy of Pavitt (1984), for 52 commercial partners. Our results indicate that China’s exports displace exports from Mexico and Brazil. As for China's competitive gains, the estimated statistics revealed low coefficients of elasticity for all selected countries. The results suggest that Chinese market share is advancing at higher levels than exports from Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Argentina.