Rodada Doha e a possível redução de barreiras tarifárias e não tarifárias : uma estimativa dos benefícios para o Brasil por meio do modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

The World Trade Organization (WTO) officially commenced on January 1, 1995, for the purpose of administering the multilateral trading system. Doha Round was the first round of WTO negotiations, which began in 2001 and extends to the present day. Numerous impasses in the multilateral context have emerged from the negotiating tables in the WTO, especially in the agricultural area, of special interest to Brazil. Thus, the objective of the dissertation is to simulate reductions in tariff and non-tariff barriers at the multilateral level, and to verify the benefits to Brazil, with emphasis on the primary sector. For that, a computable general equilibrium model was estimated using the GTAP software, and four scenarios that incorporated reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers were performed. The results show that, specifically for Brazil, in the scenarios in which only tariff reductions are incorporated, the primary and agroindustry sectors would be the most benefited. The multilateral reduction of BNTs would favor, especially, the industrial sectors, with greater technological content. When both, BNT reductions combined with tariff reductions were simulated, all sectors would increase exports, especially livestock, agro-industry, and high-tech manufactures. Concerning well-being, scenarios incorporating reductions in BNTs or combined reductions in BNTs and tariffs are the most beneficial for all regions included in the study, with global gains that can reach over $ 1 trillion.