Efeitos econômicos da formação de blocos comerciais para o brasil: uma visão por meio de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

The process of integration of Mercosur has suffered a series of setbacks in recent years, which prevents it from moving beyond the stage of an incomplete free trade zone. This study aims to analyze the effects on international trade and welfare of three scenarios that look up a new commercial strategy for Brazil, through a computable general equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) in its version 9 of the database: (i) transformation of Mercosur into a free trade zone; (ii) formation of a South American free trade area and; (iii) creation of a free trade area between the Americas. The results indicate that the gains for Brazil, even international trade and welfare, are obtained in the scenarios where there is a trade opening between the countries of South America or between the Americas. However, the best results are identified in the formation of a Preferential Trade Agreement between all the countries of South America, where all Mercosur countries have achieved growth in international trade, although with different magnitudes, with Brazil being the country to present the Higher welfare gains, USD 533 million.