Prospecção de cenários: um estudo da cadeia de produção de biodiesel do Tocantins

Abstract

Despite Brazil is considered the second largest producer of biodiesel, northern Brazil, produces only 2% of such biofuel. Tocantins (TO) have a demand that is superior to that produced by month of biodiesel, and the state government is keen to expand the biodiesel chain. With the development of MATOPIBA region (limits of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia) growth expectations of the chain only tend to increase. Considering this information, this work aims to build scenarios of the production chain of TO, seeking the factors that limit their growth. The theoretical framework it presents questions about environmental impacts, biodiesel, biodiesel production chain, the soybean production chain, analysis of scenarios. The research method is applied character, qualitative, exploratory. To this end, interviews were conducted with key links the production chain of biodiesel TO, that they are representative of the government, public institution representative and representatives of family farming. Through the analysis suggested by Van der Heijden (2005), four scenarios for the productive chain of Tocantins biodiesel were built, based on political and legal factors, economic, social, technological and ecological. As contributions, analyzes the influence that critical uncertainties the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal level can generate on the Tocantins biodiesel production chain. From this analysis, through the scenarios, we try to suggest ways for companies to mitigate the impacts caused by the critical uncertainties and to prevent their growth.