O ciclo de alta recente dos preços das commodities e o efeito na entrada de capitais externos no brasil

Abstract

This study analyzes the influence of the recent cycle of high commodity prices on foreign capital inflows in Brazil. To achieve this goal, it was used two different econometric methodologies: Markov-Switching Model and Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VEC). The first model was used to define the cycle of high commodity prices and to check if this period is concomitant to the raise period of foreign capital inflows in Brazil. The results show that the recent period of high commodity prices occurs between the years 2002 and 2014, which is the last year of the sample used in this research. Moreover, the estimated high regime for exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment, which are the three main aggregates of the Balance of Payments representing the inflow of foreign capital in the country occur in similar periods to that observed for the series of commodity prices. From these results, the influence of higher commodity prices on foreign capital inflows in Brazil was analyzed through the use of VAR/VEC methodology for the period between 2002 and 2014, from the estimation of three different models, one for each aggregate of the Balance of Payments. The results show that the cycle of high commodity prices significantly influenced the foreign capital inflows in Brazil, with the most significant effects occur via trade and short-term capital inflows.