Os impactos da competitividade chinesa sobre as exportações dos países asiáticos

Abstract

During the past three decades, China's economy grew very high rates, and at the end of the 2000s had already assumed the position as the world’s second largest economy. The most obvious aspect of China's development in this period was its foreign trade. The emergence of China in the international arena alarm several Asian countries, since their dynamics of economic growth has been based on their exports, and China stands as a strong competitor in a very wide range of products. This dissertation aims at identifying whether, in fact, the increasing Chinese competitiveness in international markets had a negative impact on the exports of Asian countries to third markets between 2000 and 2011, using a panel data methodology. The results show that this has not happened, and that China actually benefited exports of Asian countries in some cases. We conclude that, although export multiple product categories, China mainly concentrated labor-intensive production stages. Its higher value-added exports depend largely on imports of parts and components, which are provided mainly by Asian countries. Therefore, China positions itself as an important market for countries in the region. On the other hand, excess labor in China must be exhausted in the near future, causing redirection of production to more capital-intensive sectors. With this, China may abandon the current position of complementarity regarding Asian countries specialized in these products, effectively becoming a competitor.