Avaliação do custo sistêmico total da geração de energia eólica frente a substituição das fontes hidrelétrica e termoelétrica considerando as externalidades socioeconômicas e ambientais

Abstract

The power generation market still expanding in Brazil. This market consists of different sources of power generation, which cause different socioeconomic and environmental impacts besides its operations. These impacts generate externalities in the form of damage to society and the compensation of these are not common consensus among stakeholders. In this way, this thesis research through the application of systems thinking method, create a computer model of systems dynamic that enable the evaluation of the total systemic cost, considering the externalities of power generation. To this end was applied an adaptation of the method PSPC - Systems Thinking and Planning for Scenarios. In the first phase was generate a greater understanding on the subject. After there was the construction of the computational model, and finally the model was applied to three real plants in order to assessment the option of wind energy against replacement of hydroelectric sources and thermal coal. The results showed an evolution in understanding the comparison of the real cost of energy to society due to the learning provided by the use of systems thinking in conjunction with the systems dynamic modeling. The data also pointed to a change in decisions about energy matrix, if adopted a total systemic cost for evaluation of new projects.