Quais são os fatores de natureza financeira determinantes da constituição da reserva de lucros a realizar pelas empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA?

Abstract

This thesis aims to analyze what financial factors are determinants to establish the RLR (reserve for unearned revenue) by companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA. This reserve, besides being optional, represents a withholding of unearned net profit and it is closely related to capital structure and dividend policy. Thus, this research covers international theory about capital structure and dividend policy and mostly empirical studies within Brazilian companies on dividend policy. Based on the available data of these companies in their financial statements for years 2010 and 2011, we obtained a sample of 170 observations, for which establishing the reserve was optional. Of these, 27 opted to do so and 143 did not. From the available academic references and collected data, we established eight financial indexes with potential impact on the establishment of a RLR. With the use of logistic regression, we tested several models, resulting in the equation including the explanatory variables ROA (return over assets), ICJ (interest coverage ratio) and IREP (equity realization ratio), all significant at the 5% level. Thus, it was evident that the variables of this equation represent the financial factors with the highest forecasting capability of establishing the RLR. The variable ROA, which measures the profitability of the company, presented a positive coefficient, and therefore, according to the model, the higher the value, the greater the chance the company establishes the reserve. However, based on the results of empirical studies in Brazil, for which profitability has a positive relationship with distribution of dividends, we expected a negative relationship between ROA and reserves, since higher dividend distribution (and higher ROA, profitability), results in a lower chance of establishing the reserve. This result suggests that, particularly with respect to the RLR, the level of profit distribution does not influence its establishment, which merits further investigation. The coefficient of the IREP variable was negative, thereby confirming the initial expectation, since IREP measures the ability to generate cash, via financial realization of assets by recognition of profits arising from equity income from investment to meet dividend obligations on profits of the same nature. Finally, the low contribution of variable ICJ of the model ́s forecasting capability suggests conducting further tests for this variable.