Acordo comercial China-África e seus efeitos econômicos sobre o complexo soja

Abstract

The objective of the study is to analyze the deepening of trade relations between China and the African continent and the economic effects on various sectors, especially the Brazilian soybean complex. The methodology used was the computable general equilibrium model and the GTAP 11 database, with the classification of products by level of technological intensity according to the OECD. The integration of Africa (AfCFTA) in itself leads the bloc to be part of global discussions on trade. The results indicate that the AfCFTA would increase intra-bloc trade, lead to welfare gains and increase production in sectors with greater use of technology and, in return, there would be a reduction in the production of soybeans and other primary products. In the assessment of an AfCFTA agreement with China, the only beneficiary in terms of welfare would be China, both in allocative efficiency and in terms of exchange. Seeking to analyze whether the free trade agreement between China and the AfCFTA could affect trade in the soybean complex, given that China is a major importer of soybeans from Brazil and Africa has vast territorial extensions with strong similarities in agroclimatic conditions with Brazil, the simulation of the agreement indicated that the effects would be modest for the soybean sector, with a slight drop in soybean production on the African continent and a small increase in soybean production in Brazil. However, the increase in Brazilian soybean production leads to a loss of welfare due to losses in the terms of trade.