A relação entre os ciclos de investimentos público e o investimento privado do Brasil no período de 1996 a 2022: uma análise empírica

Abstract

This study seeks to investigate the relationship between public investment cycles and private investments in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1996 to 2022. Initially, a review of the theoretical concepts from the main economic schools regarding investment determinants is conducted, along with presenting hypotheses on the complementarity between public and private investments. From an empirical standpoint, the work adopts different approaches to explore the dynamics between public and private investment cycles. Utilizing the Markov Regime-Switching Model, the cycles of public investments are initially identified. Subsequently, the State-Space Model is applied to analyze the series of apparent consumption of machinery and equipment, identifying and correcting significant distortions caused by Petrobras's oil platform imports in the years 2018 and 2021. This adjustment is crucial for a more accurate understanding of the real impact on private investments. Finally, analyses conducted with Vector Autoregression (VAR) models complement the research, highlighting the crowding-in phenomenon during the most extended public investment cycle, as well as during specific periods focused on infrastructure. These models offer a detailed analysis of how periods of public investment expansion could positively influence private investments. The findings indicate that the increase in public spending, especially on infrastructure, has driven private investments in machinery and equipment throughout the studied period, underscoring the importance of these expenditures for the economy.