Os impactos econômicos de uma integração comercial entre Brasil-China, Brasil-UE e Brasil-EUA por meio do modelo de equilíbrio geral computável: uma análise da produção, do comércio e do bem-estar

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic impacts of a possible commercial integration of Brazil with its main trading partners – China, EU and USA – on production, trade and well-being. To analyze these effects, the general equilibrium model computable through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), in its version 10, which is based on the year 2014, was used in the study. Two scenarios were proposed, one being short long-term, with a 50% reduction in import tariffs, and a longterm one, with the total elimination of tariff barriers. The sectors were aggregated according to the degree of technological intensity proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The results showed that the BrazilChina agreement would be the most attractive for the country. The commercial partnership would bring an increase in production in the primary products sector, in which Brazil has comparative advantages, and an increase in well-being for Brazilian society.