Variáveis condicionantes e seus reflexos na taxa de ocupação hoteleira midscale na cidade de São Paulo: uma abordagem com a utilização de vetor autorregressivo

Abstract

The study approaches the prominent role of business tourism in the Brazilian economy, with a special focus on São Paulo. The study emphasizes the relevance of spending on hospitality, reflected in the hotel occupancy rate, especially in the midscale segment, in order to boost the business tourism sector. The structure includes the context of business tourism in São Paulo and its economic relevance, emphasizing the importance of understanding the variables that affect the hotel occupancy rate. The main objective is to analyze the influence of this rate in relation to several explanatory variables, aiming to understand their interrelationships and explain their behavior. The methodology chosen is the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, widely used in economics and finance to analyze interdependent time series. The impulse response function is employed to understand how shocks or disturbances in one variable can affect the behavior of other variables in the system. It was possible to certify that an impulse in the average economic daily rate with a response in the midscale occupancy rate revealed that a structural shock in the price of the economic sector has a positive impact on the occupancy rate. The influence of shocks at the Economic Activity Index from the Central Bank's on the misdcale occupancy rate was also intuitive, demonstrating that economic activity has a crucial role in hotel operations, with a positive impact. Another intuitive result is related to the boost in the midscale average daily rate, as it allows us to infer a negative impact on the midscale occupancy rate, since the demand of a good is affected by price variations. Hotel managers can benefit from the study by allocating resources efficiently and forecasting the demand based on objective techniques and methodologies.