Efeitos econômicos de um acordo preferencial de comércio entre Mercosul e União Europeia para o agronegócio brasileiro

Abstract

This study analyzes the impacts caused on the economy (production, trade and well-being) and on Brazilian agribusiness by a PTA between Brazil, via Mercosur, and the EU. It should be noted that the simulations were carried out using the computable general equilibrium model and the GTAP 10 database, with the classification of products by level of technological intensity according to the OECD. Thus, four scenarios were adopted: 50% reduction in import tariffs, total elimination of import tariffs, elimination of NTBs associated with partial elimination of import tariffs, and total reduction of import tariffs combined with elimination of NTBs. that, depending on the intensity of the tariff reduction, Brazilian agribusiness exports would increase, as these products have a greater competitive advantage, while the European bloc would expand production and exports of products with greater technological intensity. Welfare gains for Brazil occur with the total reduction of tariffs and the EU would have greater gains in allocative efficiency by focusing on products with greater technological intensity. And the sensitivity analysis shows greater welfare gains for countries involved in the agreement to the detriment of non-involved regions. Finally, a trade agreement with the reduction of tariff barriers and NTBs between Mercosur and the EU would generate even more mutual benefits for both in terms of production volume and trade, with Mercosur countries specializing in primary and low-intensity products technology, while the EU would specialize in medium and high technology sectors.