Modelo de decisão para priorização de ações sanitárias, infraestrutura e saneamento à COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has a virus of zoonotic origin, which has evolved and infected humans worldwide. Studies that aim to propose management tools to combat COVID-19 and, similarly, other diseases with the same origin that occurred in recent years. In the state of Rondônia, in the municipality of Ji-Paraná, based on this thesis, a decision model was proposed to prioritize health actions, infrastructure and sanitation to COVID-19. For this purpose, data from daily Epidemiological Bulletins (01/05/2020 to 09/14/2021) issued by the State Health Surveillance Agency, used as sources of official information for this research. Based on the SIRD deterministic model, which divides the population into susceptible (S), infected (I), recovered (R) and dead (D) categories, the main parameters that make up the matrix were defined. Data were organized in Excel spreadsheets, with the parameters (18) evaluated for each neighborhood. Cluster sampling with sections represented by neighborhoods. Thus, the Prioritization/Risk Matrix with the parameters (Deaths, Contaminated and Recovered) receive weights that represent degrees of severity. The score by neighborhood generated a ranking in spreadsheets and spatio-temporal-dynamic maps, with daily updates, integrated with information regarding municipal conditions in the areas of sanitation, infrastructure and environment, resulting in an Urban Development Index (IDU) associated with COVID cases -19. Thus, lacking areas and possible APP areas with disease contamination vectors were identified. The model will allow the public manager to prioritize the neighborhoods for the necessary actions related to the pandemic. In the case of Ji-Paraná, the study indicated the IDU among the neighborhoods, the best: Nova Brasília, Jardim dos Migrantes, Centro, and the worst: Jardim Florida, Vila de Rondônia, Nova Ji-Paraná.