Impactos de uma integração comercial brasileira com a China, os EUA e a UE: um estudo do agronegócio brasileiro, com ênfase no setor de produtos florestais

Abstract

The objective of the study is to analyze trade opportunities by simulating a possible trade integration between Brazil and China, with the US and with the EU, seeking to identify the sectors most benefited by the eventual agreement, classified according to their degree of technological intensity, with emphasis on Brazilian agribusiness and, in particular, on the forest products sector. The classification of products by level of technological intensity according to the criteria of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was used and the computable general equilibrium model was used, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, version 9, to simulate the impacts on international trade and the welfare effects of a possible trade integration of Brazil with selected partners. Finally, the results show that welfare gains for Brazil, in all agreements, are mainly related to the better allocation of its productive resources, which would be basically concentrated in the primary sectors and of low technological intensity, which would add the agribusiness and, in particular, the forestry sector.