Republicação das demonstrações contábeis de companhias brasileiras: estudo do impacto no preço das ações

Abstract

Financial statements play a fundamental role in the functioning of the capital market, which is why reports with incomplete or even inaccurate information directly affect the decision-making process of users, especially those external to the entity. From this context, the main objective of this research was to analyze whether there is an impact on share prices, as a result of the republication of the mandatory financial statements of publicly traded Brazilian companies listed on B3, in the period from 2011 to 2023. The study included data from 2,113 republications of the financial statements (DFP and ITR) of 321 companies that were classified into 9 groups based on the reason presented. For data analysis, the time series method was used, with application of three predictive test models for each action: auto-ARIMA, GARCH (1.1) and GARCH (2.2). The model that showed the smallest difference to the predicted value was auto-ARIMA, making more accurate predictions, and this was the model selected for the study. As for centrality, most medians were close to zero, suggesting that, in general, predictions did not vary much in relation to actual values. In all groups, the presence of outliers, that is, atypical values, was observed, but the majority of data remained around zero. The results obtained, considering the total sample and the groups, did not show significant accumulated abnormal returns, indicating that the republication does not impact the share price. Other results achieved were that the longitudinal analysis of republications showed an increasing trend and regarding the reasons given for republication, the one that presented the highest volume was the group of errors that did not impact the result with 29% of the data. Spontaneous republications accounted for 95%, and 5% as required by the regulatory body. The results detected are different from the results presented by research in other countries, the distinctions between the reasons that led companies to republish their statements in Brazil and in other countries is the main hypothesis to justify this divergence.