Instituições e poder: o efeito da geada de 1975 sobre instituições locais

Abstract

This thesis analyses how a climatic event that occurred in 1975 in the Brazilian state of Paraná altered the political balance of those municipalities affected by the phenomenon. By studying the black frost that destroyed the coffee industry in Paraná, this work studies its impact on local elites through indicators of political concentration, built with electoral data of municipalities from Paraná and the state of São Paulo. With this information, the effect is used as a tool to study the impact of political changes on the institutional quality of these locations. Traditionally, the production of agricultural commodities for export would be denoted by strong political and economic concentration, but the results suggest the inexistence of an effect like the one theorized for a situation of institutional capture. The point estimates, although not significant, point to an increase in political concentration in the municipalities affected by the frost of 1975, if such an effect exists. Currently, this change in the political balance could be reflected in worse indicators of public administration and de facto political power distribution. The discussion based on these results suggests that the context prior to the frost was one of lower land concentration and greater distribution of de facto power, which would explain the increase in concentration after 1975.